Newcastle v Swansea Preview

A team famed for its short and quick passing comes up against a team that is more accustomed to long ball approaches. This should be a fairly even match, with the teams being separated by one position and one point.

taken from: leazesterrace.com

The bad news for Newcastle is that they might have Papiss Cisse missing after Senegal threatened to stop him from playing after he missed out on the latest international matches with an undefined back injury. Captain Coloccini will also be unavailable as is Gutierrez, Cabaye and Perch. The injuries to Coloccini and Cabaye will be especially terrible as the two of them are the better passers of the team. Coloccini often looks to play the ball out of defence while Cabaye controls the tempo of the game. With the two of them not around, expect more long balls to the physical strikers that Newcastle possess. Swansea has two of their better passers out for this match too. Vorm, their goalkeeper, is the player that always start their attacks through short passes while Ki Sung-Yueng is one of their top three passers in terms of passing percentages, managing to fit into the team despite just arriving this summer. There are other good passers within the team though, with Michu possibly moving back into the midfield role and Danny Graham coming back into the striking role. Vorm's loss should be felt more though, as even though his replacement Tremmel has been decent, he is unable to produce the kind of spectacular performances that saved the team so many points last season.

Swansea is not the best team at winning ariel duels and that might be a problem for them against Newcastle. Newcastle's trio of strikers, Shoala Ameobi, Papiss Cisse and Demba Ba are certainly imposing targets for long balls and they will certainly win their fair share of headers. Swansea will need to be alert to what happens after the long balls are delivered. There are two options that the strikers normally take up, be it knockdowns or controlling the ball on the chest before volleying it. Since Swansea is unlikely to win the first headers, they will need to concentrate on picking the knockdowns or blocking the shots. The midfield battle will also be interesting. With Swansea's midfield of 5+1(striker usually drops back), Alan Pardew will have to decide whether he goes for the three/five man midfield or a four man midfielder. With Cabaye out, I will opt for a slightly narrow four man diamond midfield. Ben Arfa will be the most advanced attacking midfielder while the returning Tiote will be the holding midfielder. Tiote's role will be crucial to the game and he has to be quick to intercept the passes that Swansea will inevitably make. That is a job I feel he is indeed able to fulfill.

Predictions:
Home advantage should count in this match. Swansea's has traditionally not been that strong away from home while Newcastle has gained 10 out of their 14 points at their homeground. It will be a tight encounter though, and Newcastle to win by one goal is at 3/1. The exact score of 1-0 is also available at 7/1 and looks decent enough odds. The most confident bet I have for this match is that there will be less than 11 corners and I am surprised that there are even odds for that.