Tuesday 20 November 2012

Juventus v Chelsea Preview


The Champions League Group E has turned out to be a really tight affair and it comes as a slight surprise that neither of these teams are top of the group going into the match. Instead, Shaktar is top with 7 points while Chelsea is just behind on goal difference while Juventus lags by a point.

Chelsea's old duo of Lampard and Terry will not be available for the match while a third one in the form of Ashley Cole is rated doubtful. All three have ready made replacements in Ramires, Luiz and Bertrand, showing the depth in the squad and the injuries should not trouble them much. Chelsea should stick to their 4-2-3-1 formation for the game. Di Matteo has put on record that he might drop Torres and play Sturridge instead, a wrong decision in my opinion. Sturridge has not shown enough to convince me that he plays for the team. Even though Torres might never hit the goal figures he used to, his ability to bring team mates into play is better than the best Sturridge has ever produced. With so many goal scoring midfielders in the team, such a skill is surely very valuable. Seeing that Chelsea's next game is a very winnable one against Nordsjaelland, they do not actually need to win this game, just not losing is fine. As such, a wise move would be to play Romeu and Mikel as the double defensive pivot, freeing Ramires to play higher up, where he can be tasked to keep an eye on Pirlo. His energy will be able to lessen Pirlo's impact on the game. This will likely mean dropping either Oscar or Hazard and I will choose the latter given his current form.

Juventus is also likely to play their tried and tested formation, a 3-5-2. Looking at Chelsea's narrow midfield, the best bet Juventus has is to attack through the flanks. For this, I will say that Giovinco will play a big part with his natural speed. With the wingbacks occupying Chelsea's fullbacks, there will be space between the fullbacks and centerbacks. This is the position that Giovinco likes to run into. In this game, he should get a lot of chances in the area and hopefully his suspect finishing would not let the team down. I would also nominate Lichsteiner and Isla to play on the two flanks. Despite being at home and having the incentive to go on the attack, Juventus has to be wary of Chelsea's deadly attack. The two wing backs were converted full backs and would be more defensively able compared to other options such as Asamoah and Giaccherini. They also have the energy needed to motor up and down the field the whole day.

Predictions:

Both teams know that a loss might spell the end of their Champions League adventure and they will be out to prevent that. As such, they might both settle for a draw so I am surprised that there are odds as nice as 6.50 for draw-draw. The 2.10 dangled for under 2.5 goals looks tempting too. The 3.40 put up for Chelsea draw no bet is also worth it as the game just might swing their way if Juventus gets anxious in front of their fans and start attacking too much, making them susceptible to counterattacks. In any case, the likely scenario is a draw so not much chance of losing money there.


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