Wednesday 28 November 2012

Chelsea v Fulham Preview


These two teams meet, with both winless in 5 games after such a promising start to the season. Both teams' main problems arise from conceding too many goals though Rafa Benitez seems to have stemmed the leak at Chelsea's end. Both of their seasons are in danger of tailing off and they need the win desperately to get it back on track.

There will be added pressure on Chelsea to win the game so as to add a few points to Benitez. Benitez was booed in the last game by his fans and need the win to gain their favour. It might not be so straightforward against a freescoring Fulham. The focus of Chelsea has seemingly shifted to a more defensive approach, with right back Cesar Azpilicueta declaring, " "As a minimum you have one point, and offensively we have good players so we will have good chances but the first thing is to

defend together, play well defensively and after to do a good job offensively." This underlines the mentality at the club now. Of course, defensive stability is a good thing but too much emphasis on that will undermine the attack, something that Benitez seems to have done. I would advise him to start Moses in place of Torres and the give Marko Marin a start instead of Oscar. Both of these players possess great speed and will be useful to Benitez's tactics that seem more counter-attacking in nature. This is especially so against Fulham, who committs players forward every attack and is prone to leaving gaps at the back. Their center back pairing of Senderos and Hughes is also not the quickest and pace seems a straightforward way to get at this team. The defensive base of Chelsea should stay the same as the previous match, though Benitez might want to consider throwing caution to the winds by sacrificing Ramires for Oscar.

Fulham will know that this will not be an easy derby though history suggests that they are on course to get a point. A look at their past 4 meetings have seen all 4 end up in draws. If Martin Jol wants to eclipse that, he will have to do without the injured Ruiz and suspended Hangeland. I belive that Fulham's best chance of winning the game will come from switching flanks quickly when attacking. Chelsea's match against City saw them close down the short passing routes as the team looked to squeeze towards the ball. If Fulham is able to switch flanks fast and accurately, they will be able to push forward on the wings unopposed. Because of this, Rodallega might well be favoured on the right flank instead of Duff. Rodallega is a more direct player with a kick-and-dash style and it might well pay off here. In central midfield, Diarra has to come in in place of Sidwell as he offers more defensive powers and is more calm with the ball, which will be needed when Chelsea press.

Predictions:

The 6/1 on offer for a Fulham win js delicious but such good odds shouldn't deter you from making the right bet. Draw-Chelsea is only at 3/1 so I will again steer away from that. Looking at the goals market, I like the look of under 2.5 goals at 13/10 as I fancy Chelsea to keep another clean sheet. Another one which looks good is under 3.5 cards, earning 7.20 for every bet of 10. Juan Mata is at 30/1 to score first and after half time and I like the looks of that. I wonder whether they will give me higher odds if I go for Mata to score only after 70th minute. Perhaps 50/1? Sounds good.


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